Strait of Hormuz traffic holds on 7 July, but fresh attacks and sanctions reset point to weaker flows ahead

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained resilient on 7 July, with 41 confirmed transits, compared with 36 on the previous day. However, the increase should be viewed as a snapshot of movements already underway rather than a sign of improving confidence, as renewed security incidents and tighter U.S. sanctions announced on the same day are expected to weigh on shipping activity in the coming days.

West-to-east commercial movements continued to dominate the flow. Laden traffic accounted for 19 voyages, primarily carrying crude oil, dry bulk cargo and LPG, while Iranian-flagged vessels recorded six crossings. Sanctioned vessel activity declined to two crossings, indicating that operators remained cautious despite the higher overall transit count.

Routing patterns reflected continued uncertainty. The IMO route recorded 15 crossings, while Dark/Unknown routing remained elevated at 13 crossings, suggesting that many operators continued to avoid publicly identifiable routing despite increased use of internationally recognized navigation corridors. Traffic on the Iranian route fell to 11 crossings after the previous day's spike, while the Omani route remained subdued with only two crossings.

The security environment deteriorated significantly on 7 July. The International Maritime Organization's incident tracker listed 51 confirmed incidents across the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East. Two newly confirmed attacks involved the LNG tanker Al Rekayyat (IMO 9397339), damaged off Oman on 6 July, and the crude tanker Wedyan (IMO 9524970), damaged on 7 July, likely near Oman. IMO reported structural damage to both vessels, with no pollution recorded and no injuries reported aboard Wedyan. These were the first newly confirmed attacks since 27 June, highlighting that physical risks to commercial shipping have re-emerged.

At the same time, the compliance landscape tightened after the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) revoked General License X and introduced General License X1 (GLX1). The new framework replaces the temporary authorization for certain Iranian-origin crude, petroleum and petrochemical transactions with a wind-down regime, significantly reducing the sanctions flexibility that had supported recent trading activity.

Although 7 July's traffic remained relatively strong, the timing of the attacks and the sanctions change means the data largely reflects voyages that had already committed to transit before the latest developments. The operational impact is therefore expected to become more visible over subsequent days, as shipowners, charterers and insurers reassess security exposure, sanctions compliance and voyage economics. Unless the security situation stabilizes quickly, the renewed attacks near Oman and the withdrawal of sanctions relief are likely to reverse the recent improvement in vessel movements, with lower transit volumes and more cautious routing expected in the days ahead.