The ongoing Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has entered Day 24, with a major diplomatic shift emerging as U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that both sides are now willing to negotiate an end to the war.
The conflict, which began on 28 February 2026, has seen intense military escalation across the region, including airstrikes, missile attacks, and disruptions to global shipping routes.
Trump signals breakthrough: “both want to make a deal”
In a significant development, Trump stated that the United States and Iran have had “very good and productive conversations” and are expected to continue talks, raising the possibility of a ceasefire.
Planned U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure have been postponed for five days
The move is linked to ongoing diplomatic discussions
Trump indicated that both sides “want to make a deal”, suggesting a potential end to hostilities
However, Iranian officials have denied that formal talks are taking place, highlighting continued uncertainty around negotiations.
Oil prices fall sharply after Trump signals possible deal
Global oil markets reacted immediately to U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that the United States and Iran are in talks and “want to make a deal.”
Brent crude fell 7%–10% following the announcement
Intraday, prices dropped as much as 13–14% at peak volatility
Brent moved from around $114 per barrel to nearly $100–102 levels
In absolute terms, prices declined by roughly $10–$17 per barrel in a single session
U.S. crude (WTI) also saw similar movement, falling to around $88–90 per barrel, reflecting easing fears of supply disruption
Freight rates rise in March 2026 amid geopolitical tensions
Container freight rates, as tracked by the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), have shown a clear upward trend in March 2026, reversing the decline seen in February.
End-February 2026: around $1,899–$1,958 per 40ft container
Early March (first week): increased 3% to ~$1,958
Mid-March (week of 12 March): surged 8% to ~$2,123 per 40ft container
This represents an overall increase of roughly 8%–12% within March so far, with absolute gains of about $150–$220 per container.
War timeline: 24 days of escalation
The conflict has progressed through multiple phases:
Phase 1: Initial strikes (Feb 28 – early March)
U.S.-Israel joint strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets
Assassination of key Iranian leadership triggered retaliation
Phase 2: Regional escalation (mid-March)
Missile and drone attacks across Israel, Iraq, and Gulf region
Involvement of allied groups and widening conflict zone
Phase 3: Maritime and economic pressure (current phase)
Focus on Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil and trade route
Threats to commercial shipping and global energy flows
Rising freight, insurance, and logistics costs
Global trade and logistics impact
The war has had direct consequences on international trade:
Sharp increase in freight rates due to war-risk surcharges
Insurance premiums surged for Gulf-bound cargo
Shipping disruptions and route diversions
Increased volatility in oil markets and supply chains
The situation has forced countries like India to introduce emergency support measures for exporters affected by the crisis.
Markets react to possible de-escalation
Financial markets responded immediately to the possibility of peace:
Oil prices dropped sharply on hopes of reduced conflict
Global stock markets rebounded
Investor sentiment improved after weeks of volatility
However, analysts caution that the situation remains fragile due to conflicting signals from both sides.
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the central pressure point in the conflict:
A key route for global oil shipments
Any closure or disruption directly impacts global energy markets
Reopening the corridor is a key condition in ongoing discussions
Even after the tweet from Donald Trump, we expect the war to stop only when all the involved countries accept a truce.
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