Strait of Hormuz traffic rebounds 66% but shipping confidence remains fragile

Confirmed vessel crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz increased 66% day-on-day on 30 June, with 40 verified transits recorded, indicating a gradual recovery in maritime activity despite continued geopolitical uncertainty. Commercial shipping accounted for 28 crossings, while east-west movements (23) exceeded west-east transits (17). Low-risk vessels remained the dominant users of the corridor, with only two Iranian-flagged ships transiting during the reporting period. Cargo movements included three laden crude tankers alongside grain, clean petroleum products (CPP), LPG and dirty petroleum product (DPP) carriers.

Routing behaviour, however, suggests that confidence has not fully returned. The Iranian Route handled the highest traffic with 16 crossings, followed by the Dark/Unknown Route with 12, indicating that many operators continue to limit AIS visibility or avoid standard routing. The Omani Route recorded 10 transits, while only two vessels used the IMO Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS), highlighting continued caution among shipowners despite the absence of any IMO-verified attacks since 27 June.

Diplomatic developments remain mixed. While US President Donald Trump stated that US-Iran discussions would resume in Qatar, Tehran publicly denied that direct negotiations had been scheduled. Iran has also described the Strait of Hormuz situation as "sensitive and complex," as France and Oman advance demining cooperation with international partners. The current challenge is no longer the physical reopening of the waterway but the political contest over who controls access and security arrangements. For global shipping markets, this means transit volumes are recovering, but routing decisions, war-risk premiums and operational planning are likely to remain cautious until a more durable security framework emerges.