Red sea reopening: what Maersk’s transit means for global ocean freight and the Drewry index

Recently on January 11th and 12th 2026, the U.S.-flagged vessel Maersk Denver successfully transited the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Red sea, marking one of the first major steps toward reopening the critical Suez Canal trade corridor after nearly two years of crisis-induced diversions.

This reflects improving security conditions in the region and a growing industry confidence in resuming one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

Why the Red-sea passage matters

The Red sea is the fastest and most direct maritime route between Asia and Europe. Before the crisis began in 2023, when Houthi rebels launched attacks on commercial vessels the Suez Canal handled roughly 10–12% of global seaborne trade.

When attacks intensified, major carriers rerouted ships around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding up to two extra weeks of voyage time for many Asia–Europe journeys.  We have mentioned the Red sea challenge in your blog.

When can the Red sea fully reopen?

Though Maersk Denver’s transit is a hopeful sign, the return to full Suez and Red Sea operations is expected to be gradual, not instantaneous. Industry surveys and analysts project:

A full normalization of traffic may occur in the second half of 2026.

Carriers like CMA CGM are already beginning to reposition services via the canal, indicating a slow but real shift back.

Its also needed to regain the loss of Egypt which we have  mentioned in our earlier blog.

Impact on Ocean freight

An opening of Red Sea will lead to a bullwhip type effect for decrease in Ocean Freight and will also lead to a shipping line recession seen 2008 and 2018 when the was more space and less leading the merger and acquisition of small shipping lines.

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) can come down to 1500 USD.