Maersk at the Crossroads: Profit Surge, a Changing Business and the Race for Second Place

An editorial by the LogisticsWall team · 9 November 2026

On 5 November, A.P. Moller - Maersk did something it has now done three times this year: it raised its profit forecast. The Danish group now expects underlying EBITDA of USD 14.0-14.5bn and underlying EBIT of USD 8.0-8.5bn for 2026, up from USD 10.5-12.5bn and USD 4.5-6.5bn only in August. It also guided to free cash flow of at least USD 3.0bn, and it is still working through its USD 1.0bn share buy-back.

But the story behind the numbers is more interesting than the headline. Maersk is earning more, yet its fleet is no longer the biggest in the world, a French rival is closing in on its second place, and the company is quietly rewriting what it wants to be. This editorial looks at all three.

First, a correction to a popular narrative: Maersk is still number two

A lot of commentary says Maersk is "falling to number three". As of today it has not. According to the Alphaliner Top 100 (data as of 8 November 2026), the order is:

The top five lines (MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd) control roughly 65.5% of a world fleet of about 35 million TEU across more than 7,600 ships, and the top ten about 85%. The hundred carriers in the Alphaliner table have a combined 13.65 million TEU on order, close to 40% of what they operate today.

So the accurate picture is this: Maersk lost the top spot to MSC at the start of 2022 and has been second ever since. The question now is whether it can keep second place. CMA CGM was the fastest-growing top-ten carrier in the first half of 2026, adding about 235,500 TEU (+5.7%), and its chairman Rodolphe Saadé has said publicly he wants to be the world's number two before the end of 2027. The gap today is only about 220,000-230,000 TEU, down from roughly 340,000-360,000 TEU a few months ago.

Why Maersk is not chasing the fleet race

Maersk has been deliberately restrained. For years its stated plan was to run a fleet of around 4.1-4.3 million TEU and to use new ships to replace older, less efficient tonnage rather than to grow. That is why its orderbook, though now large, was historically smaller relative to its fleet than those of MSC, CMA CGM or COSCO.

It is now renewing more visibly. In its Q3 announcement Maersk confirmed an order for 26 dual-fuel container ships of 18,600 TEU each, due for delivery in 2029 and 2030. Industry reports from Alphaliner also say Maersk is in talks with Chinese yards about LNG dual-fuel ships of 24,000 TEU, which would be its first entry into that size class; that deal was unconfirmed at the time of writing. Alphaliner data show LNG dual-fuel designs make up the majority of contracted capacity worldwide, well ahead of methanol.

There is a larger risk behind all this ordering. The global containership orderbook has passed 15 million TEU, more than 40% of the active fleet, and analysts at Sea-Intelligence have warned that as these ships arrive, the four biggest carriers will have to fight harder for market share. Fleet size is becoming a weapon, and Maersk has chosen to compete on a different axis.

Why profits jumped in 2026

To understand Maersk's recovery, it helps to remember how weak the starting point was. In 2025 the group earned USD 3.5bn of EBIT on USD 54bn of revenue. Its ocean arm slid into a USD 153m EBIT loss in the fourth quarter as rates fell, and the company announced it would cut about 1,000 of its roughly 6,000 corporate roles. In the first quarter of 2026 net profit was just USD 100m.

Then conditions changed. In Q3 2026:

• Group revenue rose 27% year-on-year to USD 18.1bn.

• EBITDA climbed from USD 2.7bn to USD 4.7bn, and EBIT from USD 1.3bn to USD 3.3bn, an EBIT margin of 18.1%.

• Ocean EBIT jumped from USD 567m to USD 2.6bn.

The drivers were mostly on the supply side. A severe typhoon season in Asia caused heavy port congestion; global average port waiting times peaked at 16.6 hours, the worst since January 2023, and the delays absorbed a large amount of vessel capacity. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index averaged 46% higher than in the previous quarter. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the long-running diversion of ships away from the Suez Canal kept networks stretched. Maersk's vessels ran at 96% utilisation.

Demand helped, too. Global container demand grew around 2-4% in the quarter, and CEO Vincent Clerc pointed to something new: cargo linked to electrification, energy and the build-out of AI infrastructure. His words were that global trade has stayed "remarkably resilient". The World Trade Organization has made a similar point about the AI and semiconductor investment boom offsetting wartime disruption.

The caveat the market noticed

Investors were not cheering. Maersk's shares fell about 11% on the day. Q3 EBITDA of USD 4.7bn, while up 75%, was below the USD 5.04bn analysts had expected, and the new full-year guidance was close to consensus. Reuters reported that ocean volumes were roughly flat year-on-year, and that the guidance upgrade came from higher prices rather than more cargo. Costs for fuel, network operation and container handling also rose.

In other words, much of this profit is the product of disruption. Some analysts expect it to fade as ships return to Suez (Maersk has already resumed some services, including ME1 between India and Europe) and as new vessels arrive. Maersk's own sensitivity table shows how exposed it is: every USD 100 per FFE change in freight rates moves full-year EBIT by about USD 0.3bn.

For perspective, 2022 remains the high-water mark: USD 81.5bn in revenue and USD 30.9bn in EBIT. 2026 is a strong year, not a repeat of the pandemic windfall.

The bigger shift: from shipping line to logistics company

The more lasting story is what Maersk has been doing with the profits of the last few years. After the 2021-22 boom it set out to become an end-to-end "integrator": a company that moves a customer's cargo on the ocean, but also handles the trucking, warehousing, customs, air freight and last mile.

The shopping list was long: Performance Team and Visible SCM (US warehousing and e-commerce fulfilment), LF Logistics (a pan-Asian contract logistics business bought at around USD 3.6bn), Pilot Freight Services (US big-and-bulky last-mile, about USD 1.7-1.8bn) and Senator International (German forwarder, roughly USD 644m), among others. Even after a 47% revenue jump in 2022, logistics still accounted for only 17.7% of group revenue.

Execution has been harder than the strategy deck suggested. Management itself admitted at the start of this year that Logistics & Services had fallen short of its 6% EBIT margin target, citing weak middle-mile and warehousing products. As The Loadstar reported, the old "Managed / Fulfilled / Transported by Maersk" labels were scrapped in April 2026 and replaced by three simpler lines:

• Landside: inland transport, terminal drayage, depots, customs and North American expedited ground freight.

• Forwarding: air freight, LCL, project cargo and insurance.

• Solutions: supply chain management, e-commerce, warehousing and distribution.

The Q3 numbers suggest the cleaner structure is beginning to work. Logistics & Services revenue grew 13%, led by Landside, where "landbridge" solutions across the Gulf (moving cargo by road and rail when sea routes are blocked) were the largest contributor. Air and project logistics grew in Forwarding, contract logistics grew in Solutions, and the EBIT margin edged up to 5.8% from 5.5%, still just short of target but moving in the right direction. New customer wins, such as expanded partnerships with PUMA and Columbia Sportswear, and a 72,000 sqm warehouse in Germany, show where the company wants to grow.

Terminals: the quiet engine

The third leg is APM Terminals, which is arguably the best business in the group. It posted record revenue in Q3, with volumes up 2.6% (Africa +14%, Europe +6.7%) and an EBIT margin of about 32.5%. For full-year 2025 its revenue was up 20% and EBIT up 31%. Maersk is also building: the Laldia greenfield terminal in Chattogram, Bangladesh (900,000 TEU of annual capacity) broke ground in August, and the new Suape terminal in Brazil began operating in September with up to 400,000 TEU.

This is the logic of the pivot. A fleet is a cyclical asset: when rates fall, ocean can swing from a USD 2.6bn quarter to a loss within a year. Terminals and logistics earn steadier, less volatile income, and they connect Maersk to customers' entire supply chains rather than only the sea leg. If Maersk is slipping in a TEU ranking, it is partly because it is choosing to define itself by something else.

Is CMA CGM following the same path?

Yes, which is what makes the race interesting. Analysts note that CMA CGM is also pairing ship growth with logistics and port investment, so the fight for second place is no longer just about vessels. The rivalry also plays out in alliances: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd run the Gemini Cooperation, while MSC sails alone and CMA CGM works with partners.

What to watch next

1. Delivery timing. With CMA CGM's orderbook of about 1.68 million TEU against Maersk's 1.81 million TEU and larger relative to its fleet, delivery schedules, scrapping and charter returns will decide when the two swap places. Industry forecasts range from mid-2027 to the end of that year.

2. Suez and Hormuz. A full return to the Suez Canal would release capacity and put pressure on freight rates. Container lines expect that around early 2027.

3. Logistics margins. Whether Logistics & Services can cross the 6% EBIT margin line will show if the integrator strategy truly pays off.

4. Overcapacity. With the orderbook near record levels relative to the fleet, 2027-2029 could be a hard period for every carrier.

Our take

Maersk's 2026 is a lesson in how much of container shipping is driven by events outside any carrier's control: typhoons, wars and canal closures lifted its profits far more than its own growth did. The wise reading of the quarter is not "Maersk is back" but "Maersk has bought itself time". Time to renew its fleet, to prove that logistics can earn solid margins, and to build ports that earn money in good years and bad.

Whether it finishes 2027 as number two or number three on the Alphaliner list may matter less than whether it becomes a company that no longer depends on a fleet ranking to be valuable.

Sources and data notes

• Maersk press release, "Maersk converts market opportunities into significantly higher earnings and raises full-year guidance", 5 Nov 2026 (maersk.com)

• Alphaliner Top 100 (alphaliner.axsmarine.com/PublicTop100)

• News on CMA CGM's growth and its 2027 target

• Maersk investor presentations

Fleet and orderbook figures change daily; check the Alphaliner Top 100 for the latest numbers. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.