Container ocean freight outlook for February 2026 seems softer

For February 2026, ocean freight markets are entering a transitional phase. After early-year volatility and pre-holiday congestion, several structural and seasonal factors point toward moderating freight rates, especially compared with January levels.

1. Chinese New Year will cool demand

The Chinese New Year (Lunar New Year) falls mid-February (around Feb 16–22), traditionally triggering factory closures and a temporary slowdown in shipping demand. Importers push cargo early to avoid holiday disruptions, creating a short pre-holiday surge, but activity typically drops sharply once factories shut down, which reduces booking volumes and pressure on capacity in late February. This seasonal pattern has historically led to rate softening after the holiday window.

2. Spot rates already showing early softening

Market indices and weekly rate trackers for January 2026 show a small cooling of spot rates after mid-January peaks. For example, recent data indicated minor week-on-week declines on key lanes such as Asia USA and Asia Europe, signalling that the pre Chinese New Year push may have already peaked.

With demand set to decline further once factories close, freight prices are likely to ease further into February, especially if carriers refrain from aggressive blank sailings.

3. Maersk’s MECL shift could add downward pressure

A major structural event shaping early 2026 freight trends is Maersk’s gradual return of its MECL service via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. After extended disruptions that forced rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, Maersk is reinstating Red Sea/Suez sailings, beginning with MECL service late January. The shorter route reduces transit time by up to one to two weeks and re-introduces capacity that had been historically sidelined.

This shift is significant because:

• Shorter transit and fuel savings cut operational costs that carriers can pass on to shippers.

• Restored capacity — potentially over 2 million TEUs returning to market — adds supply back into a market that struggled with overcapacity and higher transit times in 2024–25.

Greater supply and faster loops typically put downward pressure on rates over time, especially beyond the immediate holiday surge.

4. Oversupply and soft demand in early 2026

Beyond timing effects, fundamental freight market conditions continue to weigh on pricing:

• Global container capacity remains elevated relative to demand growth.

• Freight indices across many tradelanes have seen pre-holiday volatility but limited strong booking activity, showing underlying softness.

This supply-demand backdrop suggests that even if spot prices hover elevated early in Q1 2026, a correction toward lower levels in February is more likely than sustained increases.

5. Shipping lines calling back the Peak season surcharge

Many shipping lines have announced the PSS from Jan but have extended to Feb and are pulling back.