Why Ocean freight will reduce in October 2025

This is an AI generated image

The Global Ocean Freight depends on different factors like – Supply chain, seasonality, trade policies and global economic conditions. There are number of reasons indicating a downward trend in Container Ocean Freight in October 2025, below are few facts to be considered :-

1.       As of 18th September 2025, the Drewry’s WCI, World Container Index stands at USD 1913 per 40’ container and has been declining continuously since last 14 weeks. There has been a decline on all the lanes.

2.       Low demand for USA exports – Due to anticipation of USA tariffs, the first half for exports has been high. There was a strong push from China after 14th May 2025 when USA reduced the tariff on China from 130% to 30%. Now the stocks are overflowing and the demand is relatively low. Also  due to high tariff the USA exports is low from India and Europe.

3.       Seasonal Changes

a.       Chinese Golden Week from 1st to 7th October 2025 – Due to this the Chinese exports will be completely closed and impact will be seen in one week before and after the holiday also leading to more space on ships, blank sailings from China impacting global demand and supply ratio of shipping lines.

b.       USTR policies – We have explained it in detail in our earlier blog. USTR, United Stated Trade Representative under section 301 is penalizing Chinese built / operated ships which might lead to increase in Ocean freight, induction of vessel with capacity less than 4000 TEU, restructuring of ships global service network by all shipping lines. Few shipping lines are also closing the service to USA, like Maersk had closed TP9 service of Maersk Gemini Co-operation from China to USA East coast.

c.       Slow recovery on exports slowdown.