Maritime industry analysis | 28 October 2026
On 28 October, Saudi Arabia's national shipping company Bahri reported third-quarter net income of 5.1 billion riyals (about $1.4 billion), up from 513 million riyals a year earlier. That is a ten-fold jump. Bahri's own explanation was simple: its oil tanker unit earned roughly ten times more because freight rates and charter levels went through the roof. It also disclosed something that no profit table captures. Several of its vessels were attacked in the period, and two of its mariners were killed.
That single result sums up the 2026 tanker market: record profits and record danger, in the same fleet, in the same quarter.
A market that has never looked like this
The US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February. Since then, Bloomberg reports that rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs), the biggest oil tankers afloat, have risen by more than 1,600% this year. Attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have not stopped the trade either. According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, October 2026 is the worst month on record for attacks in and around the strait, with 28 confirmed and reported incidents this month and 113 since the war began.
The paradox is that danger is feeding the boom. Reuters reports that owners are increasingly willing to load inside the Gulf because daily freight rates have exceeded $1 million, and regional producers are offering steeper discounts to the dated Brent benchmark. Meanwhile, the IEA's October Oil Market Report says Gulf crude exports are approaching pre-war levels, even as it warns the rebound is fragile. Oil is moving, but at a very high price.
The winners
1. Owners with spot exposure. Frontline's VLCCs earned $152,700 a day in the second quarter, according to its results, and the company had booked 86% of third-quarter VLCC days at $156,900. Its estimated cash breakeven for the next twelve months is about $23,800 a day. Put those two numbers side by side and you can see why the quarter was a record. Frontline reported adjusted profit of roughly $580 million for Q2. International Seaways also beat expectations, with spot VLCC earnings of $118,900 a day in the same quarter.
2. State-backed fleets that keep the oil moving. Bahri has been central to Aramco's efforts to keep exporting, including ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz for mainly Chinese buyers after the East-West pipeline was attacked and temporarily shut in September.
3. The owner with the biggest hand to play: Sinokor. The South Korean group now carries more than a third of the oil passing through Hormuz, according to Bloomberg. Brokers say its WhatsApp messages announcing charter deals have become a key price signal for the Gulf-to-China route, the benchmark for the whole VLCC market. With fewer normal fixtures taking place, that signal carries a lot of weight.
That raises an uncomfortable transparency question. The Baltic Exchange's TD3C benchmark, which measures that route, is reportedly facing a legal challenge. The complaint is that with normal Hormuz trade nearly halted, there was too little real trade to base the assessment on. Traders have started to use alternative benchmarks. Sinokor itself has not been accused of wrongdoing in the cases reported so far, but the episode shows how a thin, opaque market can amplify a few voices.
The losers
Importing nations. India is the clearest example, and the official data tells the story. According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), India's crude import bill for April to September was $90.6 billion, up 46.3% year on year, while import volumes were almost flat at 122.7 million tonnes versus 121.8 million. In September alone, the bill rose 46% to $15.4 billion, with the Indian crude basket averaging $116.09 a barrel. Reporting based on PPAC data suggests every $1 a barrel adds up to $2 billion a year to India's bill.
Freight is a part of that, not all of it. Financial Express data cited by Oilprice shows the Ras Tanura-to-India VLCC freight cost rose 411% to $4.34 a barrel in August, from $0.85 before the war. Freight cost is still small compared with the crude price itself. The point is that India is paying more for the same barrels, and the extra cost flows into the rupee, oil marketing company margins, subsidies and, eventually, inflation.
Anyone buying insurance. War-risk cover for a single Hormuz passage has reportedly gone from around $250,000 before the war to as much as $10 million, according to figures reported by Oilprice in August. Insurers earn from this, but cargo owners and charterers pay for it.
Global demand. The IEA estimates that global oil demand over the first six months of the conflict averaged 5.8 million barrels a day below February levels. High prices do their own damage by suppressing consumption.
Seafarers. Seafarers are the least visible cost. High day rates reward owners, but the people who actually sail these ships face missiles, drones and mines. Bahri's two dead mariners are a reminder that no rate per day compensates for that. Whether crews are sharing in the windfall through danger pay and better protection is a question the industry should answer openly.
What to watch next
Whether the boom survives a reopening. If Hormuz normalises, rates could fall quickly. The IEA also notes that depleted inventories may keep markets tight for a while, which could soften the landing.
Benchmark reform. The Baltic Exchange dispute could change how Gulf freight is priced.
Fleet growth. Frontline has said the VLCC orderbook is close to 40% of the commercially traded fleet, which would mean more ships arriving when the crisis eases.
Policy responses. Governments are releasing stocks (G7 leaders agreed on 2 October to release up to 100 million barrels). Importers will keep pressing for safer passage and lower insurance costs.
The bottom line
In this market, profit is not evenly shared. Spot-exposed tanker owners and state-backed carriers collect record returns. Importing economies like India pay the bill, and crews take the risk. The next quarter's numbers will show whether this is a temporary windfall or a lasting reset in how the world prices oil transport.
Sources and notes
gCaptain/Bloomberg, "Saudi Tanker Giant Posts 10-Fold Profit Jump as Ship Rates Surge," 28 Oct 2026
Bloomberg via The Edge Malaysia and Semafor, reports on Sinokor and VLCC rates, 27-28 Oct 2026
Reuters via US News, "Ship Attacks in Strait of Hormuz Hit Record High in October," 23 Oct 2026 (Washington Institute data)
IEA, Oil Market Report, October 2026; IEA commentary on Middle East supply shortfall
PPAC (India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas) data as reported by Oilprice, Moneycontrol/IndexBox, 19-22 Oct 2026
Frontline Q2 2026 results and earnings call (via Investing.com); International Seaways Q2 2026 results
Maritime Gateway / Oilprice on Indian freight and war-risk insurance, Aug 2026
Editor's note: this story is changing daily. Please re-check rates, Brent prices and attack counts before publishing. Figures for war-risk insurance and Ras Tanura freight are from August and may have moved since. Some third-party market summaries disagreed on details, so company filings and agency data were preferred where available.
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