USA exports to China slides to 16 years low

Over the past year, the landscape of USA and China trade has shifted dramatically, with one of the most striking developments being the collapse in U.S. passenger vehicle exports to China. While soybeans are often cited as the poster child for the damage from trade tensions, passenger vehicles tell an equally compelling story about broader geopolitical and economic forces reshaping global trade patterns.

According to Forbes trade data analyses, USA’s exports of passenger cars to China has plunged to their lowest levels in 16 years, with dramatic declines in both volume and value:

• 58.3% year over year decline in exports by value from 2024 to 2025.

• 78.4% decline compared with 2017, the year before the major trade war began after Trump taking his presidency position for the first time.

• China’s share of U.S. car exports fell from 8.33% in full-year 2024 to just 2.17% in October 2025.

• The revenue of car exports to China dropped from $4.41 billion (Jan to Oct 2024) to $1.84 billion (Jan to Oct 2025) a $2.57 billion loss.

Part of this decline comes from China’s policy response to U.S. tariffs — Beijing has sharply reduced purchases of U.S. imports like vehicles and soybeans as a retaliatory trade measure. The actual value of 2004 car exports to China would have been much higher today if inflation is accounted.

Both China and the U.S. are turning to alternative partners for key trade flows — China to Brazil/Argentina for soybeans and the U.S. to other markets for vehicles.

U.S. Car exports to China: 2017–2025 (Jan–Oct values)

Sources: Forbes / U.S. census bureau data 

The passenger vehicle slump is part of a wider trend of declining U.S. exports to China:

• China halted U.S. soybean purchases for a record period in late 2025, a key blow to agriculture exports.

• Other U.S. export categories, such as crude oil and LNG, have also seen sharp declines in recent years.

• These changes are driven by escalating trade tensions and China’s pivot toward alternative suppliers.

  
  

Future of USA and China trade -

Several possible scenarios could unfold:

• China may continue to diversify away from U.S. imports in strategic categories like autos and agriculture.

• Renewed talks could reverse some losses but might take years to rebuild market share.

• U.S. automakers may adapt by shifting manufacturing closer to key markets or focusing on non-China destinations.

The dramatic reduction in U.S. car exports to China illustrates more than just a one-off pact between trading partners, it reflects structural shifts in global supply chains and the growing influence of trade policy on economic outcomes. For U.S. producers, understanding these dynamics is crucial to navigating an era of heightened geopolitical competition and economic recalibration.