MSC Is Now Bigger Than Maersk and CMA CGM Would Be Combined, Almost. The Real Contest Is Elsewhere

Analysis | Container shipping | 13 November 2026

MSC > CMA + Maersk

CMA to be > Maersk by end 2027

The numbers

The latest Alphaliner Top 100, dated 11 November, has MSC operating ships with 7.48 million TEU of capacity, or 21.5% of the world fleet. Behind it, Maersk stands at 4.71 million TEU and CMA CGM Group at 4.48 million.

MSC's capacity is now roughly 2.8 million TEU above the carrier it overtook in January 2022. That year's headline was a photo finish: MSC passed Maersk by just 1,888 TEU. Today the gap is larger than the entire fleet of most top-ten carriers.

How MSC got here

The scale of the rise is striking. MSC's market share has doubled since 2010. In June it hit a record 21.6%, which put it above Maersk's previous high-water mark of 19.3% in 2018. No carrier has held a bigger slice of the world fleet.

The method has been relentless and unglamorous: buy second-hand tonnage, charter aggressively and take newbuild deliveries as they come. Analysts noted this pattern as far back as 2023, when MSC was widening the gap through constant purchases of second-hand ships and newbuild deliveries. It also carries a large chartered fleet, so its size rests partly on tonnage it doesn't own. That matters in a downturn, because charters can be handed back and owned ships can't.

Maersk chose a different path

Maersk spent years holding its fleet at around 4.3 million TEU while it rebuilt itself as a logistics integrator. That strategy is now being tested.

Its Q3 was strong on the headline numbers. Revenue rose 27% to $18.1 billion and EBITDA grew 75% to $4.7 billion. Management raised full-year guidance to $14.0-14.5 billion in EBITDA, its third upgrade this year. Yet the market was unimpressed. Shares fell more than 10% after the 5 November results, which missed expectations despite the higher guidance. Bernstein pointed to a Q3 EBIT of $3.3 billion that came in below expectations.

The disappointment is about what comes next, not about the quarter. A carrier that is profitable but not growing share is vulnerable in a market where capacity is about to arrive in bulk. Maersk has responded. In September it confirmed an order equivalent to about 10% of its current operating capacity. It later placed 26 LNG dual-fuel ships of more than 18,000 TEU each, due in 2029 and 2030. Those are renewal-plus orders from a company that is no longer comfortable standing still.

The real story is the fight for second place

MSC's lead is secure for the foreseeable future. The live contest is for number two.

A fleet count from 9 November puts Maersk at 4,710,206 TEU and CMA CGM at 4,479,634 TEU, a gap of 230,572 TEU. That gap is narrowing. CMA CGM added 235,500 TEU in the first half of 2026, a 5.7% increase and the fastest growth among the ten largest lines. Chairman Rodolphe Saadé has said he wants second place by the end of 2027, pointing to more than 200 ships ordered for delivery through 2030. Sea-Intelligence had already projected this swap, forecasting that CMA CGM would pass Maersk to become the second-largest carrier.

My read: if Maersk's newbuild programme lands on schedule and CMA CGM's deliveries slip, the swap could come later than 2027. But the direction of travel favours the French group, and Maersk's order book is still thin relative to its rivals. Ranking position matters less commercially than it does for pride, yet it shapes pricing power, port negotiating leverage and how shippers view network breadth.

The orderbook problem sits behind all of this

Every carrier's growth plan has to be read against the industry's overall build-out. The global fleet was just 8,000 TEU short of 34 million TEU at the start of September, and the orderbook holds more than 14 million TEU due for delivery through the end of 2030. One recent report put the orderbook at 48% of the existing fleet.

For now, disruption is absorbing the supply. Asian port congestion reached 4.3 million TEU in September, above the 4.0 million TEU stranded at the pandemic peak, according to Linerlytica. But that cushion depends on route disruption continuing. BIMCO has warned that shorter Suez routings would release capacity back into the market just as yards keep delivering. Maersk's own CEO has argued the orderbook is manageable because it phases in over a number of years, with recycling, idling and slow steaming as the traditional levers if demand softens.

Rates are already softening

The market is giving early warnings. This week spot rates on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades saw another week of gentle declines after peak season, as annual contract negotiations begin. Carriers want spot rates high to anchor contract talks, and shippers want them low after what The Loadstar called a wild ride for much of 2026.

Hapag-Lloyd is the cautionary example of the current cycle. Its profit recently surged, with the Loadstar reporting a 480% year-on-year increase in group earnings, yet the same headline noted a loss of market share. Strong rates have flattered everyone, and they have hidden the divergence in fleet strategy.

What to watch

• Contract season. Whether carriers hold rate discipline through Asia-Europe negotiations will show how much capacity pressure they expect.

• Suez. A durable return to the canal is the single biggest swing factor for supply.

• Maersk's delivery schedule. The 2029-30 slots are far away, and the gap with CMA CGM may close well before then.

• MSC's chartered tonnage. Its flexibility to hand back ships is its real hedge in a downturn.

Bottom line

MSC has won the scale race, and the question now is what scale is worth when 14 million TEU of new ships are on the way. Maersk is profitable but strategically exposed, and CMA CGM is the carrier best placed to benefit. The next twelve months will show whether size is protection or just a bigger bet on the cycle.

Sources: Alphaliner Top 100 (11 November 2026), Logisticwall.com