Middle East Shipping Is Still Moving — But the Safe Passage Is Disappearing

Ships are still moving through the Middle East. But the normal shipping map is getting harder to recognise.

The Strait of Hormuz has seen an extraordinary fall in traffic. On 21 September, only two commodity vessels were recorded crossing the Strait, against a pre-conflict average of around 125 large commercial vessels a day. Two vessels were also reported hit while transiting the area, with two crew members suffering minor injuries.

But Hormuz is only one part of the story.

On the other side, Bab-el-Mandeb remains open and is still seeing vessel movements. On 21 September, tracking data recorded 26 crossings through Bab-el-Mandeb — far more than through Hormuz on the same day.

This creates a strange situation for shipping:

Hormuz is heavily restricted, while Bab-el-Mandeb is still moving — but neither route can be treated as normal.

For Gulf cargo, operators are looking at alternatives around Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Sohar, while some cargo is being shifted to road or alternative maritime connections.

For vessels heading towards Europe, the calculation is different: Bab-el-Mandeb → Red Sea → Suez remains strategically important, but security concerns continue to influence routing decisions. Italy's defence minister has also called for stronger naval protection for merchant shipping in the Red Sea.

And this is where the real problem begins.

A vessel does not need to be attacked to create a supply-chain disruption.

Waiting for a safe passage, missing a berth, changing ports, arranging insurance or finding another vessel can be enough to delay cargo by days.

The IMO has continued to call for the protection of merchant ships and seafarers and for freedom of navigation in the region.

The Middle East shipping problem today is therefore not simply “closed or open”.

It is:

Open — but uncertain.
Moving — but slowly.
Available — but expensive.

And for shipping, uncertainty itself has a price.