India Is Selling More to China — But the Real Trade Story Is Much Bigger Than 39%

India Is Selling More to China — But the Real Trade Story Is Much Bigger Than 39%

There is a trade number coming out of India this week that deserves more attention than the headline alone suggests.

India’s exports to China rose by around 39% during April–August 2026, reaching approximately US$9.6 billion, according to Ministry of Commerce data. At the same time, exports to the four other original BRICS economies — China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa — increased 34% to US$19.9 billion, compared with US$14.9 billion during the same period last year.

The share of these four markets in India’s total merchandise exports also increased from 8.1% to 9.2%.

These are not small movements.

But the real question is not simply: Why are Indian exports to China growing?

The more important question is: Can India turn this export growth into a more balanced and deeper trading relationship with China?

China is buying more from India

China has emerged as the largest contributor to the increase among the four core BRICS markets.

India’s exports to China reached about US$9.6 billion in the first five months of FY2026-27, compared with roughly US$6.9 billion in the corresponding period last year.

That represents growth of around 39%.

August was particularly strong. India’s merchandise exports to China increased by more than 50% year-on-year during the month, according to Commerce Ministry data.

The development is significant because it comes at a time when India is actively trying to broaden its export geography.

The United States remains India's largest export destination. The UAE, Singapore and several European markets also remain important. But the latest numbers show that Indian exporters are finding additional demand in markets that are often discussed primarily from the import side.

And China is the clearest example.

But one number cannot tell the whole India-China story

This is where the headline needs to be handled carefully.

India may have exported US$9.6 billion to China in five months, but imports from China during the same April–August period were about US$65.5 billion.

That means the export growth is significant, but it does not mean the India-China trade imbalance has disappeared.

Quite the opposite.

China continues to be one of India's largest sources of machinery, electronics, industrial inputs, chemicals, components and other goods required by Indian manufacturers.

The latest five-month figures therefore present two stories at the same time:

India is selling more to China.

And

India is still buying vastly more from China.

Both statements are true.

That distinction matters.

The BRICS number is perhaps even more interesting

The China story becomes more meaningful when placed alongside the broader BRICS numbers.

India's exports to the four core BRICS economies — China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa — increased from US$14.9 billion to US$19.9 billion during April–August.

China contributed the largest increase.

South Africa recorded the fastest percentage growth, with Indian exports rising about 58% to US$4.82 billion.

Exports to Brazil increased around 13% to US$3.46 billion, while exports to Russia rose around 11% to US$2.04 billion.

This means the story is not simply about China.

It is about Indian exporters finding stronger demand across a group of large emerging markets.

The Department of Commerce itself has highlighted the increasing momentum in these core BRICS markets as part of India's broader export diversification story.

There is another number exporters should watch

India's total merchandise exports during April–August 2026-27 reached approximately US$215.91 billion, an increase of 17.85% over the corresponding period last year.

Including services, India's cumulative exports were estimated at approximately US$399.27 billion, up 15.55%.

August alone was particularly strong, with total exports of goods and services estimated at about US$82.68 billion.

Electronics exports increased almost 90% in August, engineering goods grew nearly 25%, petroleum products increased more than 63%, and several other sectors also recorded growth.

This is important because India's export story is gradually becoming less dependent on a narrow group of traditional products.

Electronics and engineering goods, in particular, are becoming increasingly important components of the export basket.

So what is China buying?

The answer is important for the next phase.

A rise in exports is useful. But the composition of those exports matters even more.

India needs to move from simply increasing the value of shipments to increasing the complexity and value addition of what it sells.

Engineering products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electronics, petroleum products, agricultural commodities and manufactured goods all have different opportunities in the Chinese market.

The long-term opportunity is therefore not merely to sell another billion dollars of goods to China.

It is to build Indian products into Chinese supply chains.

That is a much harder task.

It requires competitive pricing, consistent quality, certification, distribution networks, reliable logistics, after-sales support and — perhaps most importantly — better market access.

The trade deficit remains the elephant in the room

There is no point hiding from the other side of the equation.

India's dependence on Chinese imports remains substantial.

Recent government and industry discussions have repeatedly focused on the structural nature of the bilateral trade imbalance, including India's dependence on Chinese industrial inputs, electronics, machinery and other critical components.

Reuters has also reported that China was India's largest import source in FY2025-26, with imports of around US$132 billion.

The Commerce Ministry's latest five-month data reinforces the scale of that relationship: Chinese imports into India were around US$65.5 billion during April–August 2026-27.

Therefore, a 39% increase in exports to China should be viewed as an opportunity, not as evidence that the structural imbalance has already changed.

BRICS can become more than a political grouping

This is where the latest developments become interesting for the logistics and trade industry.

The 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi has placed greater emphasis on trade facilitation, customs cooperation, digital trade, MSMEs, global value chains, agricultural trade and cross-border payments.

BRICS now consists of a much larger group of economies than the original five.

For Indian exporters, that changes the potential geography of trade.

China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa remain major markets, while the expanded grouping brings additional commercial possibilities across the Middle East, Africa and other emerging markets.

India's own official BRICS material describes the grouping as representing a substantial share of global population, GDP and trade.

The opportunity, therefore, is not to replace one market with another.

It is to build multiple markets.

For logistics, this could become a very different trade map

If India's export growth towards China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and the wider BRICS grouping continues, logistics networks will have to respond.

More export cargo means more demand for:

• container capacity;

• direct and feeder services;

• competitive freight rates;

• reliable transhipment;

• port connectivity;

• customs efficiency;

• warehousing;

• multimodal transport;

• trade finance; and

• predictable transit times.

For Indian exporters, diversification is useful only when the logistics chain can support it.

There is little benefit in opening a new market if the landed cost makes the Indian product uncompetitive.

This is why the next stage of India's export strategy cannot be separated from ports, shipping, freight corridors and customs.

The bigger picture

There is a tendency to interpret every India-China trade number through the lens of geopolitics.

But exporters usually see the world differently.

If a Chinese buyer can purchase an Indian product at the right price, with the required quality, certification and delivery reliability, the transaction can happen regardless of how complicated the broader relationship may be.

That is precisely why the latest numbers deserve attention.

India's exports to China are rising.

India's exports to the core BRICS economies are rising faster.

India's overall merchandise exports are also growing.

But India's imports from China remain substantially larger than its exports.

So the story is neither “India has solved its China trade problem” nor “China is becoming irrelevant to Indian trade.”

The data points to something more practical.

India is beginning to sell more into a market from which it already buys heavily.

The real test now is whether Indian exporters can convert this short-term export acceleration into long-term market share — particularly in higher-value manufacturing, engineering, electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and other products that can become part of global and regional supply chains.

The next billion dollars of exports to China may be relatively easy compared with the billion dollars after that.

That is where the real competition begins.

And for India's exporters, ports and logistics industry, that may be the more important BRICS story of 2026.